Background: Cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) screening in individuals with advanced HIV reduces cryptococcal meningitis (CM) cases and deaths. The World Health Organization recently recommended increasing screening thresholds from CD4 ≤100 cells/µL to ≤200 cells/µL. CrAg screening at CD4 ≤100 cells/µL is cost-effective; however, the cost-effectiveness of screening patients with CD4 101-200 cells/µL requires evaluation.
Methods: Using a decision analytic model with Botswana-specific cost and clinical estimates, we evaluated CrAg screening and treatment among individuals with CD4 counts of 101-200 cells/µL. We estimated the number of CM cases and deaths nationally and treatment costs without screening. For screening we modelled the number of CrAg tests performed, number of CrAg-positive patients identified, proportion started on pre-emptive fluconazole, CM cases and deaths. Screening and treatment costs were estimated and cost per death averted or disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved compared with no screening.
Results: Without screening, we estimated 142 CM cases and 85 deaths annually among individuals with CD4 101-200 cells/µL, with treatment costs of $368,982. With CrAg screening, an estimated 33,036 CrAg tests are performed, and 48 deaths avoided (1,017 DALYs saved). While CrAg screening costs an additional $155,601, overall treatment costs fall by $39,600 (preemptive and hospital-based CM treatment), yielding a net increase of $116,001. Compared to no screening, high coverage of CrAg screening and pre-emptive treatment for CrAg-positive individuals in this population avoids one death for $2440 and $114 per DALY saved. In sensitivity analyses assuming a higher proportion of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve patients (75% versus 15%), cost per death averted was $1472; $69 per DALY saved.
Conclusions: CrAg screening for individuals with CD4 101-200 cells/µL was estimated to have a modest impact, involve additional costs, and be less cost-effective than screening populations with CD4 counts ≤100 cells/µL. Additional CrAg screening costs must be considered against other health system priorities.
