Publications Date
Authors

Emily Haeuser 1 , Audrey L Serfes 2 , Michael A Cork 2 , Mingyou Yang 2 , Hedayat Abbastabar 3 , E S Abhilash 4 , Maryam Adabi 5 , Oladimeji M Adebayo 6 , Victor Adekanmbi 7 , Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka 8 9 , Saira Afzal 10 11 , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah 12 , Keivan Ahmadi 13 , Muktar Beshir Ahmed 14 15 , Yonas Akalu 16 , Rufus Olusola Akinyemi 17 18 , Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna 19 20 , Fares Alahdab 21 , Fahad Mashhour Alanezi 22 , Turki M Alanzi 23 , Kefyalew Addis Alene 24 25 , Robert Kaba Alhassan 26 , Vahid Alipour 27 28 , Amir Almasi-Hashiani 29 , Nelson Alvis-Guzman 30 31 , Edward Kwabena Ameyaw 12 , Saeed Amini 32 , Dickson A Amugsi 33 , Robert Ancuceanu 34 , Davood Anvari 35 36 , Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah 37 38 , Jalal Arabloo 27 , Olatunde Aremu 39 , Mulusew A Asemahagn 40 , Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi 41 42 , Atalel Fentahun Awedew 43 , Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla 44 45 , Martin Amogre Ayanore 46 47 , Yared Asmare Aynalem 48 , Samad Azari 49 , Zelalem Nigussie Azene 50 , B B Darshan 51 , Tesleem Kayode Babalola 52 53 , Atif Amin Baig 54 , Maciej Banach 55 56 , Till Winfried Bärnighausen 57 58 , Arielle Wilder Bell 59 60 , Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula 61 62 , Nikha Bhardwaj 63 , Pankaj Bhardwaj 64 65 , Krittika Bhattacharyya 66 67 , Ali Bijani 68 , Zebenay Workneh Bitew 69 70 , Somayeh Bohlouli 71 , Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa 52 , Archith Boloor 72 , Ivana Bozicevic 73 74 , Zahid A Butt 75 76 , Rosario Cárdenas 77 , Felix Carvalho 78 , Jaykaran Charan 79 , Vijay Kumar Chattu 80 81 , Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury 82 83 , Dinh-Toi Chu 84 , Richard G Cowden 85 , Saad M A Dahlawi 86 , Giovanni Damiani 87 88 , Eugene Kofuor Maafo Darteh 89 , Aso Mohammad Darwesh 90 , José das Neves 91 92 , Nicole Davis Weaver 2 , Diego De Leo 93 , Jan-Walter De Neve 57 , Kebede Deribe 94 95 , Keshab Deuba 96 97 , Samath Dharmaratne 2 98 99 , Mostafa Dianatinasab 100 101 , Daniel Diaz 102 103 , Alireza Didarloo 104 , Shirin Djalalinia 105 , Fariba Dorostkar 106 , Eleonora Dubljanin 107 , Bereket Duko 108 109 , Maha El Tantawi 110 , Shaimaa I El-Jaafary 111 , Babak Eshrati 112 , Sharareh Eskandarieh 113 , Oghenowede Eyawo 114 , Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu 115 116 , Sayeh Ezzikouri 117 , Farshad Farzadfar 118 , Nazir Fattahi 119 , Nelsensius Klau Fauk 120 121 , Eduarda Fernandes 122 , Irina Filip 123 124 , Florian Fischer 125 , Nataliya A Foigt 126 , Masoud Foroutan 127 128 , Takeshi Fukumoto 129 , Mohamed M Gad 130 131 , Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane 132 , Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis 48 , Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin 133 , Lemma Getacher 134 , Keyghobad Ghadiri 135 136 , Ahmad Ghashghaee 137 , Mahaveer Golechha 138 , Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari 139 , Harish Chander Gugnani 140 141 , Rafael Alves Guimarães 142 , Mohammad Rifat Haider 143 , Arvin Haj-Mirzaian 144 145 , Samer Hamidi 146 , Abdiwahab Hashi 147 , Soheil Hassanipour 148 149 , Hadi Hassankhani 150 151 , Khezar Hayat 152 153 , Claudiu Herteliu 154 155 , Hung Chak Ho 156 , Ramesh Holla 51 , Mostafa Hosseini 157 158 , Mehdi Hosseinzadeh 159 160 , Bing-Fang Hwang 161 , Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye 162 , Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi 163 164 , Irena M Ilic 165 , Milena D Ilic 166 , Rakibul M Islam 167 , Chidozie C D Iwu 168 , Mihajlo Jakovljevic 169 170 , Ravi Prakash Jha 171 172 , John S Ji 173 , Kimberly B Johnson 2 , Nitin Joseph 174 , Vasna Joshua 175 , Farahnaz Joukar 148 149 , Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak 176 , Leila R Kalankesh 177 , Rohollah Kalhor 178 179 , Naser Kamyari 180 , Tanuj Kanchan 181 , Behzad Karami Matin 119 , Salah Eddin Karimi 182 , Gbenga A Kayode 183 184 , Ali Kazemi Karyani 119 , Maryam Keramati 185 , Ejaz Ahmad Khan 186 , Gulfaraz Khan 187 , Md Nuruzzaman Khan 188 , Khaled Khatab 189 190 , Jagdish Khubchandani 191 , Yun Jin Kim 192 , Adnan Kisa 193 194 , Sezer Kisa 195 , Jacek A Kopec 196 197 , Soewarta Kosen 198 , Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana 199 , Ai Koyanagi 200 201 , Kewal Krishan 202 , Barthelemy Kuate Defo 203 204 , Nuworza Kugbey 205 , Vaman Kulkarni 174 , Manasi Kumar 206 207 , Nithin Kumar 174 , Dian Kusuma 208 209 , Carlo La Vecchia 210 , Dharmesh Kumar Lal 211 , Iván Landires 212 213 , Heidi Jane Larson 2 214 , Savita Lasrado 215 , Paul H Lee 216 , Shanshan Li 217 , Xuefeng Liu 218 219 , Afshin Maleki 220 221 , Preeti Malik 222 223 , Mohammad Ali Mansournia 157 , Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo 224 , Walter Mendoza 225 , Ritesh G Menezes 226 , Endalkachew Worku Mengesha 227 , Tuomo J Meretoja 228 229 , Tomislav Mestrovic 230 231 , Andreea Mirica 154 , Babak Moazen 57 232 , Osama Mohamad 233 , Yousef Mohammad 234 , Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani 235 , Reza Mohammadpourhodki 236 , Salahuddin Mohammed 237 238 , Shafiu Mohammed 239 240 , Ali H Mokdad 2 99 , Masoud Moradi 119 , Paula Moraga 241 , Sumaira Mubarik 242 , Getaneh Baye B Mulu 243 , Lillian Mwanri 244 , Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan 245 246 , Mukhammad David Naimzada 247 248 , Muhammad Naveed 249 , Javad Nazari 250 , Rawlance Ndejjo 251 , Ionut Negoi 252 253 , Frida N Ngalesoni 254 , Georges Nguefack-Tsague 255 , Josephine W Ngunjiri 256 , Cuong Tat Nguyen 257 , Huong Lan Thi Nguyen 257 , Chukwudi A Nnaji 258 259 , Jean Jacques Noubiap 260 , Virginia Nuñez-Samudio 261 262 , Vincent Ebuka Nwatah 263 264 , Bogdan Oancea 265 , Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya 266 267 , Andrew T Olagunju 268 269 , Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde 270 , Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya 271 , Jacob Olusegun Olusanya 271 , Ahmed Omar Bali 272 , Obinna E Onwujekwe 273 , Orish Ebere Orisakwe 274 , Nikita Otstavnov 247 , Stanislav S Otstavnov 247 275 , Mayowa O Owolabi 276 277 , P A Mahesh 278 , Jagadish Rao Padubidri 279 , Adrian Pana 154 280 , Ashok Pandey 281 282 , Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal 283 , Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan 284 , George C Patton 285 286 , Shrikant Pawar 287 , Emmanuel K Peprah 288 , Maarten J Postma 289 290 , Liliana Preotescu 291 292 , Zahiruddin Quazi Syed 132 , Navid Rabiee 293 294 , Amir Radfar 295 , Alireza Rafiei 296 297 , Fakher Rahim 298 , Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar 299 , Amir Masoud Rahmani 300 , Kiana Ramezanzadeh 144 , Juwel Rana 301 302 , Chhabi Lal Ranabhat 303 304 , Sowmya J Rao 305 , David Laith Rawaf 306 307 , Salman Rawaf 308 309 , Reza Rawassizadeh 310 , Lemma Demissie Regassa 311 , Nima Rezaei 312 313 , Aziz Rezapour 27 , Mavra A Riaz 314 , Ana Isabel Ribeiro 315 , Jennifer M Ross 2 316 317 , Enrico Rubagotti 318 319 , Susan Fred Rumisha 320 321 , Godfrey M Rwegerera 322 , Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam 118 , Rajesh Sagar 323 , Biniyam Sahiledengle 324 , Maitreyi Sahu 2 , Marwa Rashad Salem 325 , Hossein Samadi Kafil 326 , Abdallah M Samy 327 , Benn Sartorius 99 328 329 , Brijesh Sathian 330 331 , Abdul-Aziz Seidu 89 332 , Amira A Shaheen 333 , Masood Ali Shaikh 334 , Morteza Shamsizadeh 335 , Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw 48 , Jae Il Shin 336 , Roman Shrestha 337 , Jasvinder A Singh 338 339 , Valentin Yurievich Skryabin 340 , Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina 341 , Shahin Soltani 119 , Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan 342 , Takahiro Tabuchi 343 , Eyayou Girma Tadesse 344 , Nuno Taveira 345 346 , Fisaha Haile Tesfay 347 348 , Rekha Thapar 174 , Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone 349 350 , Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye 351 , Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo 352 , Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan 353 , Jorge Hugo Villafañe 354 , Francesco S Violante 355 356 , Bay Vo 357 , Giang Thu Vu 358 , Yohannes Dibaba Wado 359 , Yasir Waheed 360 , Richard G Wamai 361 362 , Yanzhong Wang 363 , Paul Ward 364 , Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe 365 , Katherine Wilson 366 , Sanni Yaya 367 368 , Paul Yip 369 370 , Naohiro Yonemoto 371 372 , Chuanhua Yu 242 , Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin 373 374 , Yunquan Zhang 375 376 , Zhi-Jiang Zhang 377 , Simon I Hay 2 99 , Laura Dwyer-Lindgren 2 99 ; Local Burden of Disease sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators

Journal
MC Med.
PMID
36529768
PMCID
PMC9760541
DOI
10.1186/s12916-022-02639-z.
Abstract

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Keywords: Africa; Demographics; Geostatistics; HIV; HIV prevalence; Mapping; Spatial statistics.

 

Copyright/License
© 2022. The Author(s).
Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2…